In which I am up past my bedtime for no good reason.

The more I think about it, the more I love that HBO put Nik and Gwen together on a commentary track for Season 5 (Episode 2). Seeing how Jaime and Brienne don’t get anywhere near each other all season, and all, we do sort of get them back together in a sense. I don’t think that association was a coincidence. I think HBO put them on the same commentary track for exactly that reason.

At the same time, though, it’s also a missed opportunity that Nik isn’t doing commentary for Episode 4. I would so love to hear his thoughts on that bit where he gets all goo-goo-eyed at sailing past the Sapphire Isle.

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More J/B-related speculation below the jump. I’m working with filming leaks, so if you don’t want mild-to-moderate spoilers, go somewhere else.

While I’m here, I’ve done a bit of thinking on J/B as a structural element, and I don’t think we’ll get the big romantic breakthrough we’ve been hoping for in Season 6. By “structural element,” I mean there’ll be two more seasons after 6, and possibly more? Let’s minimize complications and assume it’ll be just eight seasons. And then look at other relationships on the show that have already reached their consummation, and how long did they last? Jon and Ygritte, for example: they banged mid-S3, they broke up at the end of S3, and Ygritte died in late S4. Robb and Talisa: married late-S2, died without issue late-S3. (On the same subject, I don’t think Dany will keep up her affair with Daario for much longer.) I don’t think Jaime and Brienne will declare their love for each other in S6 and then just stay happily together until the end. Nothing ever goes that well for anyone on Game of Thrones. I think they’re an end-game relationship, and with that in mind, their relationship development will be drawn out until nearly the end of the series. Which is exhausting for those of us who want to be proven right, but knowing how things roll on GoT, we should be worried if the J/B relationship does too well in S6.

I’m picturing two possible scenarios. One is, the relationship will move forward, but only a tiny bit. The other is it’ll take a step forward and then a step back by the close of the season. In the first case, they’re happy to see each other at Riverrun, there’s lots of sexual tension in the tent, maaaaybe they take off their armor together and enjoy it a bit too much, but they don’t get as far as kissing. (And I can just forget about making any “DOESN’T MATTER: HAD SEX” memes.) And then something goes badly, Brienne storms out of the tent and flounces out of Riverrun with her loyal squire in tow, but they may still find each other again by the close of the season, and if they do, they’ll be on good terms. In the second case, the relationship reaches a more advanced stage when Brienne shows up at Riverrun, for example there’s some kissing and heavy petting going on in the tent, but after she storms out, there’s no reconciliation by the close of the season. They have no scenes together by the close of Ep10, we’re left to wonder if they’ll meet again, and if so, whether they’ll be happy to see each other.

To be honest, I’d actually prefer the first scenario? I’d rather see them reconnect following that storm-out-of-the-tent moment, without having already achieved physical intimacy, than see them get to the end of another season thinking they’ll never see each other again.

And now that I’ve said all that, I think we can expect to see the second case play out in S6. This is my pouty face, y’all.

Of course they’ll be happily together at the end, but we’ll have to wait a few years to see that happen. If they meet up at Riverrun, declare their love for each other, make sweet love in Jaime’s tent, and are still happily together at the close of S6, though? One or both of them will die soon.

For the same structural reasons, I’m fairly sure Cersei will not die in S6. Cersei will not die until S8. I foresee a Lannister body count in S6, but Cersei is too good of a love-to-hate character to sacrifice before the final season, so all three of the siblings will still be healthy by the close of S6.