Okay! I went back to Google Drive, updated my list of stuff we already know about what Arya gets up to in S6, and I think I have a rough timeline.
The part where I may have (again) gone seriously wrong is the timing of the mummer show in Braavos, whose director may be already known or not.
What we’re pretty sure we know of Arya so far is that in Daniel Sackheim’s episodes, Arya has a scene of being blind on the street, and the Waif hits her with a stick. In Mark Mylod’s episodes, she does a chase/fight scene with the Waif through the streets of Braavos, and she has a fully-clothed swim somewhere in what looks like a harbor or canal. Then we’re told by credible sources, so far without contradiction, that Arya goes back to the Riverlands! At some point, there’s a mummer show in Braavos, based on events in King’s Landing from S1 with Ned Stark dealing with the Lannister-Baratheons, and Arya is somewhere near that mummer show.
Come to think of it, we don’t know anything about what Arya does in Jeremy Podeswa’s episodes. Does she even appear before Ep3? I honestly don’t know.
Anyway, let’s just assume we get something of Arya within the first two episodes. She goes blind in the S5 finale, so it’ll take her some time before they restore her sight.
My rough timeline is thus:
1-2: Arya’s blind and being punished in HoBaW.
3-4: Arya is blind and begging on the street, the Waif is hitting her with a stick. Arya performs through this test well enough that Jaqen decides to restore her sight.
5-6: Arya has her sight back, sees the mummer show, something about that show reminds her that she can only be Arya Stark, rather than No One.
7-8: First the swim in the canal, associated with retrieving Needle, then the chase/fight scenes with the Waif in the streets of Braavos.
9-10: Stows away on a ship headed back to Westeros, lands in Riverlands, decides to cross Walder Frey off her list.
The gaps I’ve filled in are, basically: She gets her sight back by the end of Ep4. The mummer show triggers her process of going back to Westeros, and this takes place in Jack Bender’s episodes. She retrieves Needle from its hiding place in Ep7, and this retrieval mission results in her taking a swim in the canal. Her retrieving Needle and swimming in the canal gets her in trouble with the Waif, who then chases her through the streets of Braavos and intends to kill her because she’s a risk to the House of Black and White. She escapes the Waif by stowing away on a ship headed to Westeros.
And the ship lands in the Riverlands, where Arya finds out Walder Frey is lord of Riverrun. He’s still on her list, and she has Needle.
Now, I DO have an idea of where she is at the very end of the season, but it’ll be embarrassing if it turns out to be wrong, so I’m keeping it a secret for now. The one idea that isn’t apparent from the filming leaks we’ve seen on Arya so far, and that I would like to share, is that Arya will be interacting with her family for the first time since S1. I think she’ll meet up with Uncle Brynden, and maybe even have a little interaction with Uncle Edmure. The Freys are the ones who’ve been granted the title to Riverrun, and they have the Lannisters on their side, but to get the castle, they first have to defeat the Tullys. Who are related to the Starks.
And now you may be asking me if I think Arya will encounter Jaime. I think it’s possible, but I’m not using it as a premise for other ideas. We’ve been told Jaime will be “somewhere else” well away from Riverrun at the end of the season. He may already be gone when Arya shows up at Riverrun to go after Walder Frey. So, I don’t rule out that Arya and Jaime will interact, but I’m very squishy on what the circumstances would be.
There are a lot of moving parts involved in the last two episodes. That’s where we only have rumors rather than filming leaks. Based on the leaks we have, though, I’m feeling like this is the time for Arya to see her family again.